Under the influence of a series of factors such as repeated epidemics, declining new energy subsidies, and shrinking demand, the passenger car market in the first quarter of 2022 is full of challenges, but there are still many bright spots.
1. Leading the market for commercial vehicles
The year-on-year growth rate of passenger cars, trucks and commercial vehicles in the first quarter of 2022 is as follows:
The table shows that the cumulative sales volume of passenger vehicles in the first quarter was 91,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. It can be seen that the passenger car market led the rise in the commercial vehicle market in the first quarter.
Why is the passenger car market better than the overall commercial vehicle market in the first quarter? According to the analysis of the automobile terminal network, the main reasons are:
First, in the first quarter of 2021, the truck market was affected by the National VI and other policies and regulations, and the sales base reached an all-time high. In the first quarter of 2022, due to the overdraft of demand and the impact of the epidemic, coupled with the low freight rate in the freight market and the intensification of the contradiction between more vehicles and less goods, the sales of trucks generally "halved" year-on-year.
Second, the passenger car market has been sluggish in recent years, and the factors affected by the National VI environmental protection upgrade and other policies are very small. The sales volume in the first quarter of 2021 is already at a low level and the base is low, resulting in a relatively small year-on-year decline in passenger car sales in the first quarter of 2022.
Third, although the new energy truck market has been booming recently, the proportion of the truck market is indeed too low to reverse the substantial decline in the truck market in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the sales of new energy buses also showed a positive year-on-year growth (data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, new energy buses with a height of 6 meters or more increased by 4.22% year-on-year), and accounted for more than half of the buses with a height of 6 meters or more. The pulling effect is obvious.
2. Large passenger vehicles have grown by over 20% year-on-year, becoming the “light” in the commercial vehicle market
The sales volume of large, medium and light buses in the first quarter of 2022 and year-on-year are as follows:
The above chart shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume of each segment of commercial vehicles is:
The cumulative sales volume of large passenger vehicles was 9,700 units, a year-on-year increase of over 20% (21.3%), which was the largest year-on-year growth in the passenger vehicle segment in the first quarter of 2022 and was the only segmented model with positive growth, which was 10.4% higher than the highest growth rate in the truck market in the first quarter. The growth rate was nearly 11 percentage points higher, leading the commercial vehicle segments in the first quarter.
The good performance of the large bus market has become a "light" in the dim commercial vehicle market in the first quarter.
Why did large passenger cars have such a dazzling performance in the first quarter? The automobile terminal website believes that the reasons are as follows:
First, the market demand for large-scale new energy buses of 10-11 meters is “great”.
According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative sales of new energy buses above 6 meters were 8,488, a year-on-year increase of 4.22%. Among them, a total of 3,127 large-scale new energy buses of 10-11 meters were sold, occupying 36.8% of the market share of new energy buses in the first quarter, ranking first; an increase of 22.8% year-on-year, outperforming the 21.3% increase of large buses in the first quarter by nearly 1.5 percentage points , becoming the backbone driving the year-on-year growth of large passenger cars by over 20% (21.3%) in the first quarter.
Second, the supply-side car companies have abundant resources of 10-11m new energy bus products, which provided strong support for the growth of the large bus market in the first quarter.
In the first quarter of 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 352nd-354th batch of 3 new energy bus announcements. Among them, the number of 10-11m new energy bus products on the list is the first.
3. Large and medium-sized new energy buses are the backbone to restrain the decline of the bus market
The data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the year-on-year comparison of the overall market for large and medium-sized new energy buses and large and medium-sized buses and buses is as follows:
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2022, large and medium-sized new energy buses increased by 4.22% year-on-year, outperforming the overall large and medium-sized passenger vehicle market by nearly 4.9 percentage points and outperforming the overall passenger vehicle market by nearly 22.92 percentage points. Therefore, it can be considered that in the first quarter, large and medium-sized new energy buses have become the backbone force to curb the overall decline of the bus market.
The main reason is that the market for large-scale new energy buses of 10-11 meters already mentioned above is strong. In addition, 2022 is the last year of subsidies for new energy buses. Both the supply side and the demand side are trying their best to seize the last policy "bonus", which to a certain extent has promoted the recovery of the new energy bus market in the first quarter.
4. Rural passenger cars are relatively stable and become the main force to restrain the decline of the light bus market
In the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative sales of light passenger vehicles was 76,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%, making it the segment with the largest year-on-year decline in the passenger car market.
This is mainly due to the impact of the implementation of the new blue-brand light truck (passenger) regulations, resulting in a decrease in the demand for light passenger and cargo models in the urban distribution market. However, the performance of rural passenger cars in the light bus market was relatively stable in the first quarter, and became the main "contributor" to restrain the sharp decline of the light bus market.
The year-on-year comparison of the sales volume of rural passenger cars (including 5-7 meters) in the first quarter of 2022 is as follows:
The above table shows that the sales volume of rural passenger cars in the first quarter of 2022 was 19,200 units, a slight decrease of 1.54% year-on-year, which was much smaller than the 21.6% drop in the light bus market by nearly 20.06 percentage points, indicating that although the rural passenger car market was also affected by the economic environment, the overall The performance is still relatively stable.
The automobile terminal website believes that this is mainly due to the favorable policies issued by the state since 2022 to support the development of the rural passenger transport market.
For example, on January 19, 2022, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport on Adjusting the Fuel Subsidy Policies for Rural Passenger Transport and Taxi", which clarified the policies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
The main content involves four major aspects: First, the smooth transition of policies to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the industry. The second is to highlight the key points of support and optimize the structure of capital expenditures. The third is to strengthen performance evaluation and improve the efficiency of capital use. The fourth is to consolidate local responsibilities and improve the working mechanism. This is very beneficial to stabilizing the rural bus market in the first quarter.
For another example, on March 2, 2022, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the "Administrative Measures for the Establishment of Demonstration Counties for Integrated Urban and Rural Transportation", which is also very important for further promoting the stable development of the rural (urban and rural) passenger transport market in the first quarter. good.
5. The export market increased by double digits year-on-year, showing a "bright" performance
In the first quarter of 2022, my country's passenger car exports and the weight of passenger cars occupied by exports are as follows:
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 13,000 passenger cars were exported, a year-on-year increase of 16.17%, outperforming the passenger car market in the first quarter with an increase of -18.7% by nearly 35 percentage points, accounting for 14.29% of the passenger car market in the first quarter of 2022. 10.00% in the same period in 2022 is an increase of 4.29 percentage points.
It shows that the passenger car export market in the first quarter of 2022 is better than the general passenger car market.
According to the survey of the bus terminal website, the passenger car export market in the first quarter of 2022 increased by double digits year-on-year, mainly due to the following aspects:
First, in the first quarter, the epidemic situation in some exporting countries was well controlled, the tourism and passenger transport markets recovered and the number of passenger car imports to my country increased year-on-year.
Second, the competitiveness of Chinese bus brand products overseas continued to improve.
In recent years, Chinese brand cars have been greatly improved in terms of appearance, quality, intelligent network configuration, etc. Compared with joint venture brand products, they are not bad, and some advanced configurations even surpass joint venture products.
Third, the overseas investment model of Chinese auto companies has undergone important changes.
At present, the overseas development model of passenger car companies has developed from the original trade model and some KD models to a direct investment model. For example, the factories directly invested by Yutong have started mass production overseas, and have gradually increased production and sales. This has laid a solid foundation for enterprises to support their own brand overseas sales and promote future growth.
Fourth, companies such as Yutong, BYD, King Long, CRRC, and Ankai have large overseas orders, which boosted the growth of the passenger car export market in the first quarter.
Yutong:
In mid to late February, 100 Yutong buses were sent to Uzbekistan and Kuwait respectively. Among them, 20 Yutong ZK6126BEVG pure electric buses were sent to Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, and 80 Yutong ZK6116HGS double-decker buses arrived in Kuwait City, the capital of Kuwait.
BYD:
In early February, BYD delivered the first K6 pure electric bus to the largest local state-run public transport operator, National Transport Cooperation, in Port Louis, the capital of Mauritius;
On February 15, BYD announced the successful delivery of 29 new pure electric double-decker buses to operator Abellio;
In mid-to-late February, BYD delivered 172 pure electric buses to the Bogota Municipal Government and the Municipal Public Transport Administration, marking the start of the batch delivery of BYD's largest overseas pure electric bus order (1,002 vehicles);
In late February, BYD announced that it will provide more than 130 zero-emission pure electric double-decker buses for battery energy storage operator Zenobē and British bus operator National Express, which are expected to be put into operation in Coventry in 2023;
In mid-March, the first batch of 30 BYD K9s was delivered to Transjakarta, a bus operator in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, on March 8. This is the first pure electric bus officially put into operation in Indonesia.
King Long Bus:
At the beginning of January, King Long successfully won the export order of 305 buses from Kuwait.
CRRC Electric:
At the beginning of January, the first batch of 50 pure electric buses C11 customized for South Korea were delivered;
In mid-January, CRRC Electric cooperated with Korean customers again, and CRRC Smart-made new energy buses were delivered to Korean users in batches; the overseas version of ET12 pure electric high-end buses was delivered to New Zealand NZBUS company in batches.
Ankai Bus:
On March 8, Ankai won a large order for 800 passenger cars in Mexico, which ignited the entire passenger car industry. This has not only become the largest order for Chinese passenger cars exported to Mexico so far, but also brought a strong growth momentum to the export of passenger cars.
In short, there are many bright spots in the bus market in the first quarter of 2022. Please wait and see how it will perform in the later period!
