Since 2020, with the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the world, the advantages of the strong resilience of China's auto industry chain have been fully reflected, and the Chinese auto export market has shown strong growth in the past two years. The export market sales in 2021 will be 2.138 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%; the export market sales in January-March 2022 will be 688,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 57%.
With the export of wholly-owned automobile enterprises, the export of Chinese automobiles to developed European markets has made a huge breakthrough. New energy vehicles are the core growth point of China's auto exports, changing the passive situation of auto exports that depend on some poor and non-standard countries in Asia and Africa. In 2020, the export of new energy vehicles will be 223,000 units, showing good performance; in 2021, the export of new energy vehicles will be 588,000 units, which will continue to be strong; from January to March 2022, the export of 200,000 units of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a good situation of strong growth of new energy vehicles.
China's new energy vehicles are mainly exported to Western Europe and Southeast Asia markets. Belgium and the United Kingdom have become export highlights, and their exports to Australia and other countries have performed well. Although overseas is still restricted by the epidemic, the restart of the economy continues, the demand for related manufacturing industries has begun to recover steadily, and the price of mineral resources has risen. Therefore, China's exports to Chile and other countries in South America have performed strongly. China's auto exports to Russia have continued to grow strongly recently.
The core driving force for the growth of China's auto export market is still the growth space for passenger vehicles, especially in countries such as the Middle East and Africa, where export performance is relatively strong, while markets such as Europe and Mexico have recently been strong. The overall performance of new energy vehicle exports is strong. Although the export of new energy low-speed vehicles has declined significantly, the export of new energy vehicles to Europe has grown rapidly, and SAIC and Tesla have performed strongly.
The overall trend of China's auto exports
1. Characteristics of the growth rate of automobile exports
After the sharp decline in the downturn of the world economy in 2013-2015, the export growth rate gradually stabilized and improved in 2016-2020, and the current monthly export volume is maintained at a monthly average of about 100,000-150,000 units. Exports in 2020 reached 1.06 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; exports from January to December 2021 also reached 2.13 million units, which is also affected by the epidemic, and there is still huge room for the development of auto exports in the future; 2022 China's auto exports are off to a good start Strong, with a growth rate of 70%, which is rare in history.
The export market sales in 2020 will reach 1.059 million units, a year-on-year increase of -13.1%; the export market sales in 2021 will reach 2.138 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%; the export market sales in January-March 2022 will reach 683,000 Taiwan, an increase of 57% year-on-year, mainly due to the substantial enhancement of export competitiveness. In the past two years, China's exports have grown significantly under the international epidemic.
2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports
From the monthly trend, exports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, showing the peak and fall trend of a roller coaster in summer, but it will change to a continuous upward trend in 2021. At the beginning of 2020, exports were at a low level in the past years. In 2021, there will be explosive growth. In 2022, the export of the auto market has a strong start.
Under the epidemic, due to overseas supply chain problems, China's auto exports have risen strongly, and exports will continue to strengthen in 2022, reflecting the substantial increase in the global competitiveness of China's auto industry.
3. Structural characteristics of vehicle exports
From 2017 to 2019, the export car market grew relatively in the same period. From January to December 2020, the export of complete vehicles (including chassis) was 1.06 million units, and the growth rate of -13% was considered very good. The best export performance in January-December 2021 is 4WD SUVs and other passenger vehicles.
In December 2021, the export of traditional passenger cars was relatively good, but the overall export of passenger cars, traditional and new energy, both experienced low growth and negative growth, which also shows that our exports are still encountering bottlenecks.
From January to March 2022, 100,000 customs trucks were exported, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and the export performance of various types of trucks was good.
From the perspective of structure, passenger cars with less than 9 seats are the ones whose export performance has declined, and the export of unspecified passenger cars has reached 33% of passenger cars this year. The performance of light trucks in trucks is relatively stable, and the performance of large and medium-sized passenger cars is poor.
4. Structural characteristics of new energy vehicle exports
From 2017 to 2019, the export volume of new energy vehicles is relatively large, but the passenger cars are basically miniature low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual number is not large.
The export structure and quantity of new energy passenger vehicles have improved. In 2020-2022, the export of new energy will perform well, and the plug-in hybrid models should also be the re-sale products of the joint venture.
From January to March 2022, the export of new energy vehicles accounted for 30%, much higher than the domestic level, showing a trend of transformation.
Overseas market structure of automobiles
1. Analysis of regional trends
In terms of sales volume, exports from 2017 to 2021 are gradually recovering, mainly contributed by Africa and Europe. Recently, the market share of Europe has increased significantly, and the export to North America has continued to increase significantly in the past two years, and has recently declined; while the performance of Africa and South America has rebounded slightly.
The main regions for automobile exports are Asia and Europe, and the developed regions are currently in a strong trend. Exports from poor regions weakened in Asia, while Africa's performance was mediocre.
This year, more cars were exported to Belgium, and more exports to Russia. The Chilean auto market has been strong in recent years. Asia remains the Saudi and Bangladeshi market. The recent Mexican market has performed strongly.
2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports
In 2021, vehicle exports are mainly to Chile, Saudi Arabia, Australia and other markets. The Russian market, Sweden and Australia are all relatively strong. Even this time, the Belgian market has become a core market for incremental growth.
From January to March 2022, there will be relatively more increments in the European market. Belgium, the United Kingdom, Russia, Norway, etc. are all strong.
Overall, the epidemic has had a certain impact on the export of China's auto market, but the suspension of overseas production has led to a certain increase in China's exports to developed countries.
3. Analysis of changes in exporting countries
The effect of overseas bases for automobile exports is not ideal. In 2021, the main export of automobiles will be Belgium, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries.
In 2020, the realization of automobile exports will mainly come from Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries.
In the early stage, it was the promotion of exports from countries such as Iran, Mexico, and Bangladesh, which suffered relatively large losses under the epidemic; the recent export losses were also from Algeria, North Korea and other countries.
In 2022, the main increase in automobile exports will come from relatively developed countries such as Belgium, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Mexico, and Russia's exports will also decline slightly.
4. Analysis of China's exports to Russia
The export of Chinese cars to Russia has experienced complex fluctuations. In the past few years, Chinese car exports to Russia have been strong, and then Russia's policy has strongly attacked the export of Chinese cars, resulting in relatively poor Chinese car exports for a period of time.
However, since 2019 and 2020, China's exports to Russia have gradually increased. In 2021, China's exports of automobiles to Russia will rise to a high level of 120,000 units.
From January to March 2022, China's auto exports to Russia will reach 43,500 units, an increase of 79%, and the performance is extremely strong. This year's exports to Russia are mainly passenger car exports with strong growth, reaching the level of 39,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 71%.
In March, the export of Chinese automobiles to Russia reached 14,238 units, reaching a high level of 55% growth. Among them, the export of heavy trucks increased by 761%, showing a strong performance.
China's auto exports to Ukraine are relatively small, with an annual average of less than 4,000 units from 2018 to 2020, mainly passenger cars and heavy trucks. In 2021, China's auto exports to Ukraine will achieve high growth, reaching 9,929 units, which is a good performance.
In January of this year, China's exports to Ukraine performed well, and in February-March it was relatively low.
Export Trend of Passenger Vehicles by Category
1. Passenger car export by displacement
The displacement of passenger cars exported is mainly in the range of 1 liter to 1.5 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's independent passenger cars.
The product grade of electric vehicle models is lower, and the export demand is unstable. In 2018, it accounted for 16% of passenger cars, 26% in 2019, 25% in 2020, and 30% in 2021. The export of low-priced miniature electric vehicles was super strong in the early stage, and the export of high-end electric vehicles will improve greatly in 2021.
China's auto exports in 2022 will remain strong. Among them, gasoline vehicle exports performed well in January, and continued to decline from February to March. The export of pure electric vehicles declined significantly in March.
2. Structural characteristics of passenger car exports
The main growth markets for Chinese passenger car exports during the epidemic from January to March 2022 are developed countries in Europe and the United States. In 2022, the export of passenger cars to Europe will be strong; Belgium, Russia and the United Kingdom will have strong markets; the Mexican market in North America will continue to strengthen; exports from countries such as Thailand will recover significantly.
Export Trend of Trucks by Category
1. Truck export
The export growth rate of the truck market has been low in recent years, and its proportion in the automobile export market has continued to shrink. Diesel trucks are strong, showing continued high growth.
The main force in the truck market is trucks under 5 tons, and there is also a strong demand for heavy trucks above 20 tons.
With the gradual easing of the overseas epidemic and rising mineral prices, the export of Chinese trucks has been promoted, effectively offsetting the domestic downward pressure.
2. The changing characteristics of the truck export market
The top positions in the truck export market were generally stable. Truck exports will see strong and high growth in 2021, and the main export performance in 2022 will be average. Recently, Mexico and Russia have strong truck exports.
Markets such as Myanmar, South Africa, Ghana, and Iraq will decline in 2022. The South American market is relatively good, among which Chile, Ecuador and Mexico are the core and main markets for China's truck exports.
The Algerian market will shrink rapidly in 2021, while the South African market will be stronger in 2021. The South African market is poor this year, and the export of spot vehicles to overseas markets is still not stable enough.
Export Trend of Passenger Cars by Category
1. Passenger car export performance
In recent years, the overall growth rate of China's passenger car export market has been very poor, which is also the impact of the epidemic and the downturn in new energy. The export of passenger cars is in a state of continuous shrinking relative to the overall automobile industry.
The export of the passenger car market is mainly based on light passenger vehicles. Recently, gasoline light passenger vehicles have performed strongly. In 2021, the large passenger market will relatively shrink, and the diesel large passenger market will gradually strengthen.
There is not much demand for pure electric exports. The proportion of pure electric bus exports in the domestic market is relatively low.
2. Performance of bus exporting countries
The main markets for passenger car exports are Egypt, Peru, Vietnam, Ecuador, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other markets, which have small capacity and high volatility. The export of passenger cars to developed countries is less, which does not reflect the real advantages of passenger cars.
Demand in Vietnam has shrunk sharply in the past few years and has recovered slightly recently. The export performance of Angola and North Korea is also volatile, which is also characteristic of complex trade patterns.
